DomVsBeta
Quant sports betting · Information service · 18+

DomVsSports selections priced by a model.Not by a personality.

A quant approach to sports betting. Every pick across football, basketball, tennis and more carries a model probability, fair-value price, and quantified edge against the market — sized to your bank with fractional Kelly. No screenshots of winners. No locked DMs. No "lock of the day."

30-day free trial · cancel anytime

Try Member free for 30 days — every selection, fully tracked. Then $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Card required to start; no charge during the trial.

  • CLV-tracked
  • Kelly-sized
  • Time-stamped
  • Tier-gated
Soccer·MLS
T1

Inter Miami vs Orlando City

Tue, 21:30 ET

pending
Selection
Inter Miami
Match Result
Fair-value odds
1.91
bet ≥ this
Stake
1.40u
Kelly-sized
Edge
7.3%
Expected Value
+0.073
Model prob.
52.4%
Dom's Stake: 1.40
ROI (T1, YTD)
+8.4%
Closing-line basis
CLV beat
+2.6%
Avg. vs. market close
Selections
1,240+
Logged & timestamped
Avg. edge
3.1%
Per published pick

Coverage

Sports we price.

Our model ingests odds and signals across every major league. The more liquid the market, the sharper our edge — but we'll publish anywhere we can find one.

Soccer
30+ leagues
Basketball
NBA · EuroLeague · NCAA
American Football
NFL · NCAAF
Baseball
MLB · NPB · KBO
Tennis
ATP · WTA · Slams
Ice Hockey
NHL · KHL · SHL
Golf
PGA · DP World · LIV
MMA
UFC · Bellator · PFL
Boxing
Major cards
Cricket
T20 · ODI · Test
Rugby
Union & League
Australian Rules
AFL
Esports
CS2 · LoL · Dota 2
Motorsport
F1 · NASCAR · MotoGP
Darts
PDC majors
Snooker
World Tour
Handball
EHF & nationals
Volleyball
Pro & national teams
Table Tennis
WTT · Olympics
Futures & specials
Outrights · season props

If a liquid market exists, we can model it. Premium clients can request specific leagues.

Methodology

Why a professional should care

01

Model-first pricing

Each selection is generated from an in-house quantitative model that produces a probability and fair-value price. We only publish when the market price implies positive expectation.

02

Closing-line value

Every pick is recorded against the market's closing line — the only honest test of an edge. CLV is published, win or lose.

03

Fractional Kelly staking

Stakes are sized to your bankroll and chosen Kelly fraction (default 0.5). Premium clients can override per tier. No flat units.

04

Tier-gated distribution

Highest-edge selections (T1) go to a small premium cohort first to protect line value. Lower tiers and golf flow follow on a delay.

05

Time-stamped immutable log

Selections lock the moment they hit your feed. We can't quietly delete losers. The full record is auditable on request.

06

No referral skin in the game

We are not a sportsbook affiliate. We don't earn on your losses. Subscription only — incentives aligned with your P&L.

Track record

Honest numbers, including the bad ones

Performance is reported on a closing-line basis at fractional Kelly. We publish drawdowns and losing months as readily as winning ones. Past performance is not a guarantee — variance is real, and we'll tell you what to expect.

Units profit (2026)
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ROI (2026)
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Bets tracked (2026)
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Win rate (2026)
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Units profit (2026)
Cumulative, by day
Live
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Detailed CSV record available to verified clients on request. Sportsbook screenshots are not.

Anatomy of a tip

What every selection tells you

Soccer·MLS
T1

Inter Miami vs Orlando City

Tue, 21:30 ET

pending
Selection
Inter Miami
Match Result
Fair-value odds
1.91
bet ≥ this
Stake
1.40u
Kelly-sized
Edge
7.3%
Expected Value
+0.073
Model prob.
52.4%
Dom's Stake: 1.40

Closing line: 1.94 · CLV beat: +5.7% · Result logged on settle and surfaced to your P&L. This is an illustrative ticket.

  • Model probabilityWhat our model thinks the true chance is.
  • Fair-value oddsThe price that probability implies. If the market is longer, there's edge.
  • Edge %Your expected value per unit staked, before commission.
  • Kelly stakeSized to your bank and Kelly fraction. Editable per tier on Premium.
  • TierT1 = highest model conviction. Premium-only. Lower tiers cascade outward.

For the skeptical

Questions a professional asks

Are you affiliated with a sportsbook?
No. We earn from subscriptions, not from your losses. We have no referral relationships with any book and no incentive to push you toward a soft line we can't actually beat.
How do I know the record isn't curated?
Selections are immutable from the moment they're published. Every pick — winner, loser, void — is timestamped in our database and visible in your client feed at the time it was issued. We don't retroactively edit. CSV exports are available to verified Premium clients.
Why is closing-line value the headline metric?
ROI over a small sample is noise. CLV — beating the market price at close — is the cleanest evidence that an edge is real, even on a losing day. We report both, but we trust CLV.
What's the difference between tiers?
T1 represents the highest model conviction and is delivered to Premium clients first to protect line value. T2–T5 cascade outward over time. Free clients see a small, deliberately delayed slice. Golf flow is on its own track.
What kind of edge should I expect?
Average pre-commission edge per published selection is ~3%, with a long right tail. At fractional Kelly with normal variance, expect ~6–10% annualised on bank with drawdowns of 5–10%. We will not claim more.
Can I just paper-trade first?
Yes. Free and Member tiers exist for exactly this — track our calls against close before committing capital. We'd prefer skeptical clients.

Plain English

What DomVs is not.

We are not a bookmaker.

We do not accept, hold, or settle wagers. We do not take a position against you and we do not profit from your losses.

We are not an automated betting service.

We never connect to, log into, or place bets through any sportsbook account on your behalf. Whether to act on a selection — and at what stake — is entirely your decision.

We do not store account credentials.

No bookmaker logins, no linked wallets, no API keys to your sportsbook. DomVs is a research and information service — nothing about your betting account ever touches our systems.

We are not a financial adviser.

Selections are research output, not financial or investment advice. Sports betting carries real risk of loss. Stake only what you can afford to lose.

DomVs publishes information. You choose, at your own discretion, whether to place any bet with a licensed operator in your jurisdiction. You are solely responsible for complying with the gambling laws that apply to you.

Membership

Every selection. Fully tracked.

Member unlocks the entire feed — every tier, every pick, including T1 — with a 30-day free trial. Cancel anytime.