Glossary · Math
Edge
How much better your estimated probability is than the market's implied probability.
Edge is your statistical advantage over the price. If the market prices a team at 50% but you believe they're 55%, your edge is 5 percentage points. Edge is what generates EV. No edge, no business.
Formula
edge% = (p - p_market) · 100 p = your probability p_market = no-vig implied probability of the market price
Related
- Expected Value (EV)— The average profit (or loss) per unit staked if the same bet were repeated infinitely.
- No-Vig Odds (Fair Odds)— The odds with the bookmaker's margin removed — what a fair coin would pay.
- Closing Line Value (CLV)— The difference between the price you took and the market's closing price — the truest test of an edge.