Glossary · Math

Implied Probability

The probability suggested by a price (before removing the bookmaker's margin).

Every decimal price implies a probability. It is not the true probability — it includes the bookmaker's margin — but it's the starting point for comparing your model to the market.

Formula
implied probability = 1 / decimal odds
Worked example
Odds 2.50 → implied probability = 1 / 2.50 = 0.40 (40%).