Glossary · Math

Fair-Value Odds

The price implied by your model probability, with no margin added.

If your model says a team has a 55% chance, the fair-value price is 1 / 0.55 = 1.818. If the market is offering longer than 1.818, you have edge. Fair-value odds are how DomVs scores every published selection.

Formula

fair-value odds = 1 / model probability

Edge— How much better your estimated probability is than the market's implied probability.
No-Vig Odds (Fair Odds)— The odds with the bookmaker's margin removed — what a fair coin would pay.
Expected Value (EV)— The average profit (or loss) per unit staked if the same bet were repeated infinitely.